Data beats opinion >>> your weekly update on the alternative data space

1. Search data predicted Finish Line sales.

2. Leveraging trade data to estimate iPhone sales.

3. Case study of how satellite data can be used.

4. Dataset of the week: UK housing data.

5. News articles of the week: Third Point, Numerai.

1. Search data predicted Finish Line sales.

Finish Line reported yesterday with the company announcing a poor quarter and guidance for next quarter. “We are disappointed that our third quarter sales and earnings fell short of our expectations,” said Sam Sato, Chief Executive Officer of Finish Line.

The company also reported weakness in same store sales (SSS). In our Data Insights note from December 15th, we had indicated that our Search Signals index on Finish Line was pointing to weakness in SSS: “The sharp downtrend observed in the index in recent months (figure below) indicates that expectations for SSS growth at FINL are at risk, or that management outlook for the February quarter may disappoint”.

The Search Signals indicator was prescient in providing directionality on this key company metric.The company’s stock is reacting to the change in fundamental outlook.

Contact us to learn about our “Search Signals” offering – enquiries@eaglealpha.com.

2. Leveraging trade data to estimate iPhone sales.

Eagle Alpha analysis, using export data from Eagle Alpha’s trade data partner, provides a powerful insight into unit sales for Apple’s iPhone.

Our ARIMAX model, built using trade data available from Eagle Alpha’s partner, was early in spotting that Apple was over-shipping handsets throughout calendar 2015 (figure 1). Adjustment to over-shipment occurred in late 2015 and the first half of calendar 2016. The extent of the over-shipment can be seen in the adjustment to consensus estimates in subsequent quarters (figure 2).

Contact us to learn more about this data provider – enquiries@eaglealpha.com.

3. Case study of how satellite data can be used.

Satellite data company provides investors with actionable insights on year-over-year traffic trends based on proprietary quantitative analysis of satellite data, retail parking lot imagery, store locations, and climate data.

The traffic data can be used to compare the current y/y traffic growth data against the historical average of the y/y traffic growth measurements. A signal is generated when the current y/y traffic growth rate is above or below certain standard deviation levels, indicating a significant change in shopper behavior.

Best Buy

On 11 May 2016, signal for Best Buy was upgraded to ‘Positive.’ The signal was then reiterated three times (June 15, July 21, August 9).

On 17 Nov 2016, Best Buy reported better-than-expected Q3 results. Revenue rose to $8.95 billion vs the consensus of $8.85 billion. Since then, BBY share price is more than 20% up.

Contact us to learn more about this data provider – enquiries@eaglealpha.com.

4. Dataset of the week: UK housing data.

Vendor Overview: this data provider uses advanced predictive customer analytics to help companies identify key life events uncovering intent as purchasing decisions are forming.

Dataset Description:

  • Product A: Includes the decile distribution of property rental & purchase data at a regional level.
  • Product B: Street level property rental & purchase data.

Dataset Overview:

  • Coverage: 80% of U.K residential home sales.
  • Sourced from over 19,000 estate agents branches, 26 web portals and 6 case management software system packages.
  • History: Since 2005.
  • Collection Frequency: Daily.

 Alpha Use Cases:

  • Predictor of future UK mortgage approvals by tracking properties likelihood to sell.
  • Early gauge of demand in UK housing market.
  • Track rental demand in an area by analyzing rental properties under offer relative to total number of rental listings in an area.

Related Tickers:

  • LLOY.L, RBS.L, BARC.L, FOXT.L, SVS.L, GRI.L, ABBY.L BDEV.L, PSN.L

Our Data Directory has 434 providers. Contact us for more information – enquiries@eaglealpha.com

5. News articles of the week: Third Point, Numerai.  

Third Point hires WorldQuant’s data scientist to support its quantamental strategies.

Numerai’s AI system built by anonymous data scientists.

Happy Holidays,

Eagle Alpha.

www.eaglealpha.com